Hi! In first place I want to say that english is not my native language (i'm from Spain) so I want to apologize if there is any mistake.
So let's go!
This post is to get a first aproach to get the chances of this items:
a. The 911 call was in the first few seconds of 12:21
b. 12:21 to 2:26 is 2 hours and 5 minutes on June 25; 2 + 5 = 7
c. 1,221 + 226 = 1447; 1 + 4 + 4 + 7 = 16; 1 + 6 = 7
d. Memorial 7th day of 7th month, 7 years after will (and full moon)
e. 77 days from “death” to 9-9-09
f. 7 days from “burial” to 9-9-09 (and almost full moon)
g. THIS IS IT vowels = 999
h. HIS (HIStory and THIS IS IT) backwards = 1998
i. 1998 autograph; 1998 - 666 = 1332 / 4 = 333 + 666 = 999
j. 777 + 999 = 1776
k. All of these numbers (333, 666, 777, 999, 1221, 1776, 1998) are divisible by 111
l. 8 + 16 + 1977 = 2001; 6 + 25 + 2009 = 2040 (space intros for Elvis and MJ)[a,b,c,d,e,f as a whole (see below)]
These issues are tied to the 911 call.
The call must be on 12:21 fewer seconds of 06/25 on 2009.
- If other minute then, you lose 12:21 (issues a, b, c)
- If other day, you lose 06/25 (issues b, d, e, f)
- If other year, you lose 2009 (issues e,f)
So the basic chance is to call for death in 12:21 fewer seconds. If you take this date/hour, and only take this (because other year, month, hour and minute implies that a,b,c,d,e,f can't be true), then we need to made the basic calc: die in the exact minute of ONE year.
1 Vs 60 (minutes a hour) x 24 (hours) x 365 (06/25).
This is 1 vs 525600 for one year (this will be used for calculation on diying EXACTLY on 2009). We can consider that diying at the start of the minute (first 30 seconds) is x2 (1 vs 1051200) of the first quarter is x4 (2102400).
I think we shouldn't take 12 hours, (because it could be mistaken with 00:21, but considering this option, chances are 1 vs 262800).
With those all considerations i think it's fair to take 1 vs 525600 as average.
Let's go on b) and c):
To make this true, 911 call must be done on 12:21 06/25 (taken in account previously)
AND announcemente exactly 2 hours and 5 minutes after.
This can be a bit controversial.
First of all, on b) we take 2 hours and 5 minutes. We could take another way of counting (like 125 minutes and use minutes) or taking other hour like 12:46 (25 minutes after) and search for similar calculations.
About c) we will also take 2:26 pm and not 14:26. This should be ok because 2:26 is the most common format for hours.
But we are strictly on numbers. So we should use only the numbers. b) and c) need this condition: Announcemente made 2 hours and 5 minutes exactly after and no other condition. What's the chance for this?. That announcement must be made on the same day to maintain d,e,f conditions, so the minutes that remains in that day are 11 hours and 39 minutes, so 699 minutes. So a chance should be 1 in 699. Could be argueable that could be 11 hours and 38 mins (12:21 is already used... and even reduce the minutes if we think there "should be" some time after 12:21... but in a matematical aproach, we should use the 12:21 as the starting count.)
On issue d) it implies that should be taken on a particular day of week of the year similar at the St James Holy Year (Año Santo Compostelano ->You are not allowed to view links.
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Login). If it happens every 11,6,5 & 6 years, so the regular chance is 4 for (11+6+5+6=28 year) or 1 in 7 chance as average, and 1 in 5 in favorable one, but e) and f) implies stronger condition. It must be on 2009 or 9/9/9 is not posible. Could be taken a one in 28 if we wanna a full moon, but this is irrelevan by issues e) and f)
Let's go on issues e) and f):
And in this condition should be taken in account of the chance of one person to die with 50 years old exactly with a life expectancy of about 80 years for a male in the "first-world" we can take 80 years as a fair expectancy (numerical), can be pushed up by the economy and medical possibilities of MJ and toned down by high rythm (espectacles, high creativity.. etc).
So, if life expectancy can be taken on 80... what's the chance of diying exactly on 50 years old? (because the exact minute, hour, day and month are taken in account).
Well. Here is the chance You are not allowed to view links.
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Login. The table that takes mortality of USA in 2003. I didn't get other better, but calculus should be a good estimation. Chances are 0,004494 percent. Taking 0,004495 this is 1 vs 22251,89141, (let's took 22250 for calculation).
And YES, this is a gaussian formula. So diying at 50 years with 80 years isn't 1 vs 80 it is 1 vs 22250.
So, for a), b), c), d), e) & f) we must get:
Exact minute, hour, day and month of 911 call no taken in account the seconds : 1 vs 525600.
Exact minute of announcement: 1 vs 699.
Diying exactly at age of 50 (the chance that MJ with 50 years died this year statistically in spite of the day): 1 vs 22250.
All combined: 1 vs 525600x699x22250 = 1 in 8.174.525.400.000.
Now we should take on g) and h):
g) THIS IS IT taking I as a 9 and these making 999.
Well, letters to numbers is very controversial.
Well Letter "I" is the ninth letter or third vowel. We can take this is it as 333 if taken as a vowel. Letter "I" is a faily common vowel in English. And it is rather common phrases with 3 or 4 letter "I". In this text, you can see many sentences ranging with one to five or more letter I. So i think this should not be taken into account.
It is not a 100% chance, but a 1 in two fits well (read a few medium-weight sentences in english and you will find a lot). There is not a way to exact calculation and for a chance that seems clearly above 10%. I think it cannot be taken into account. On the other hand, words like "this", "is", "in", "I", etc. are really common and fairly easy to sum o substract to any sentece to get the effect.
h) Same as g), and taking 1998 arbitrary instead of 9999 or 3333. A lot of medium-weight sentences in english have 3 or 4 letters I. (example: the sentences in this text)
i),j) and k):
i. 1998 autograph; 1998 - 666 = 1332 / 4 = 333 + 666 = 999
j. 777 + 999 = 1776
k. All of these numbers (333, 666, 777, 999, 1221, 1776, 1998) are divisible by 111
First of all, we should give some math advice. If you sum or substract two numbers divisible by 111, the result ALLWAYS is divisible by 111.
1998 is 18*111, 666 is 6*111, 1332=12*111 333=3*111 and so on.
So i could be viewed as:
i) 18-6= 12, 12/4= 3, 3+6=9 and 9*111=999. So nothing extraordinary in that math
j) 7+9=16, same as i)
k) So the real thing here is what are the chances that a number is divisible by 111 (issue k).
Well this is easy: 1 in 111.
And 7 numbers being divisible by 111...?
Really simple 1 in 111 powered to seven (111^7) which already is divisible by 111.
****But i think this is not the real question****. The real question is which of these numbers are taken and which are calculated i) -> You are not allowed to view links.
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LoginIf we take the choices MJ chooses in i & j, we should discard the numbers calculated.
This implies on i)
1.- 1998 is choosen for calculus. (1 in 111). This is chosen as 111*2*3*3 o 111*18
2.- 666 is chosen for calculus. (1 in 111)
3.- 4 is chosen as divisor for calculus. (1 in 8, divisors of one digit ranged from 2 to 9).
On j):
4.- The choice is the number 777. (1 in 111)
1) and 2) gives us 1332 and with 3), gives 333. Then using again 2) gives 999.
So i think is fair taking in account only 1998, 666, 4 and 777.
This would make 1 vs 111*111*8*111=10.941.048. I TAKE THIS NUMBER for fainess (see below) but it is grossly inadecuate because it cannot be measured.
Why? Because we are taking these numbers as numbers, not signs. These numbers have significance as digits in a phrase, and the frase is written with a meaning and a way of being written (numbers in horizontal, vertical (the 666 or 777, etc), which implies thar¡t the intention is far more difficult and complex that the simple way of choosing numbers
For example, in i) the phrase is like this 1998V666^%4 (1998 horizontal, down arrow, 666 vertical, caret and 4). If we asume that a monkey like Bubbles is pressing keys to get some similar at this, the chances are 1 in 102 (arbitrary number) in a standard keyboad for each sign and we have 12 signs, it would be 1 vs 102 powered to 12!!, a near 10^24. So the numerical value of this is cannot be calculated. (it's like finding this handwriting in mars (or a TV set) . By only luck, you cannot get all the atoms being fitted in a TV set).
So math aproach here is a nonsense.
l). 8 + 16 + 1977 = 2001; 6 + 25 + 2009 = 2040 (space intros for Elvis and MJ)
l). The chance of taking 6/25/2009 is already taken in account in a-f), so no aditional increase in difficult should be taken as aggrogate result.
But, if a-f) is not taken into account, what is the chance for a
X (month) + Y (day)+2009 = 2040.
Well, X+Y must sum 31. This only happens 11 times at a year (12 if extra day 2/29 is taken) . (1/30, 2/29*, 3/28, 4/27 .. 12/18). so it could be vieved as 11 vs 365, or more accute 11+11+11+12 vs 365+365+365+366 or 45 vs 1461 (a bit less, years like 2100 do not have extra day, but i think the example is clear).. about 1 vs 32.4666
Same reasoning can be used with 8+16+1977=2001. In this case X+Y=24, it happens 12 times at a year (1/23, 2/22... 12/12) so 12 vs 365 (well, finer, should be 48 on 1461). About 1 vs 30,4375
So the combined chances give us 1 vs (32,4666*30,4375). And this gives us about 1 vs 989 (yeah it would be great taking a 999 here, but it doesn't happen
).
Summing ALL it gives us...a-f) 1 vs 8.174.525.400.000
g-h) not taken in account. 1 vs 2?. Never more than 1 vs 10. I don't use on final calculus.
i-k) 1 vs 10.941.048
l) Only Elvis, MJ is taken into accounts a-f) 1 vs 30.4375)
This gives a really BIG number 1 vs 2.722.265.313.574.221.900.000
AND 2+7+2+2+2+6+5+3+1+3+5+7+4+2+2+1+9= 63 and 6+3=9
(this is a funny coincidence
1 vs 9).
Finally I should explain that the only realiable (because admits a statistical aproach) are the chances explained a-f) and l). The rest of issues (g-k) cannot be "attacked" by a math aproach.
Finally, I want to thank TS for your help. This is a great adventure, no dubt! :mrgreen:
